Because of these percentages the marketing team felt like
they should use a “guys night out” strategy to re-market to previous season ticket
holders and to try to attract new season ticket holders by offering free
beer/wine.
However, before the promotion could get final approval,
questions arose over the process being fair and impartial. Upper management were concern about sexism
backlash from it being advertised as a “Guys Night Out” promotion, especially
since the drawing for a trip to Hawaii was involved (in which 100% of
respondents entered). Therefore, Stan
Goodman asked, if when someone is randomly selected from all respondents what
is the probability that it is a woman. The
answer came back as 40.8% or 102/250. Then
Goodman inquired, “What is the probability that a woman who said yes would win
the trip to Hawaii?” In technical term
this would be written as P(Y|W), which equals to 63/102= 0.6176 or roughly 62%.
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